Market Summary | October 2024
Global markets faced challenges in October due to rising bond yields, a stronger USD, and mixed economic signals. The Australian market fell, weighed down by declines in materials and energy, while financials and healthcare gained. Inflation eased, but diminished expectations for RBA rate cuts and stretched valuations added pressure.
Market Summary | September 2024
In the September quarter, the Australian equity market outperformed global peers, driven by strong mining stocks and a boost from Chinese stimulus, while inflation improvements supported expectations of future RBA rate cuts. Global equity markets also rose, benefiting from lower inflation, resilient economic growth, and optimism around earnings, though risks of a recession remain, especially in the U.S. In emerging markets, Chinese stimulus measures led to a strong recovery in equities, with Chinese markets surging in September and overall emerging markets outperforming developed markets for the quarter.
Market Summary | August 2024
In August, the Australian equity market saw modest gains, driven by strong bank performance despite weakness in miners, energy, and small caps, with inflation data suggesting potential interest rate cuts in 2025. Globally, equities rose, recovering from early declines, supported by disinflation and prospects of rate cuts in the US, with defensive sectors leading the way. Europe outperformed, while Japan lagged due to interest rate hikes. Emerging markets saw mixed results, with China struggling in real estate and manufacturing, but strong growth in India, ASEAN countries, and a rally in Brazil.
Market Summary | July 2024
In July, the Australian equity market outpaced global equities, driven primarily by a strong performance in the banking sector. Positive inflation data and a potential easing of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) further bolstered the market, although global uncertainties, including tightening in Japan and weak Chinese growth, dampen the broader outlook.
Market Summary | June 2024
In June, Australian equities rose slightly but were down for the quarter, with bank sector gains offsetting losses in materials and energy. For the year, Australian equities increased, led by banks, consumer discretionary, and IT, while staples, materials, and energy declined. Australia's sluggish performance is due to low exposure to AI stocks and weak domestic growth. Higher inflation limits monetary policy support, with a rate hike expected by September.
Market Summary | May 2024
In May, Australian equities saw a modest rise, trailing behind global markets. The country's lower exposure to AI stocks, a subdued earnings environment, weak domestic growth, and limited growth sector presence contributed to this underperformance.
Market Summary | April 2024
In April, Australian equities fell, with losses across most sectors except materials, while REITs dropped significantly due to rising bond yields. The weak performance was driven by higher-than-expected inflation data domestically and in the US, leading to a less supportive interest rate outlook and pushing bond yields higher. Meanwhile, global developed markets, led by the US, saw significant declines as higher inflation and bond yields undermined equity valuations, though emerging markets, particularly China, showed resilience with a modest gain in AUD terms.
Market Summary | March 2024
Australian equities rallied this month but underperformed global markets over the quarter, despite reaching record highs driven by strong sectors like mining and banking. The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate steady, adopting a neutral stance on future rate movements amid improving economic signs, including employment and housing market recovery.
Market Summary | February 2024
In February 2024, Australian equities saw a modest increase with the ASX200 up by 0.8%, trailing behind global markets but maintaining a 10.6% growth over 12 months, driven by strong performances in IT, consumer discretionary sectors, and the Mid Cap segment.
Market Summary | January 2024
In February 2024, Australian equities saw a modest increase with the ASX200 up by 0.8%, trailing behind global markets but maintaining a 10.6% growth over 12 months, driven by strong performances in IT, consumer discretionary sectors, and the Mid Cap segment.
Market Summary | December 2023
In Australia, stocks rebounded in December but lagged globally for the year, with cautious rate cut expectations and subdued earnings. The Reserve Bank kept rates steady amidst high inflation. Growth was stagnant, impacted by higher rates and taxes.
Market Summary | October 2023
The Australian equity market experienced a decline in October due to higher bond yields and a contraction in PE multiples, alongside a subdued earnings outlook projecting negative EPS growth over the next year. In international markets, global equity also saw a decrease in the same month, with bond yields on the rise and geopolitical tensions contributing to the uncertainty. Emerging markets declined as well, with Chinese equities facing continued challenges despite attempts by Chinese authorities to support the market and boost infrastructure spending.
Market Summary | September 2023
In Australia, the equity market faced losses in the month and quarter, with a subdued earnings outlook for the next 12 months, while the RBA refrained from raising interest rates. In the US and developed markets, global equity markets declined in September, mainly due to the surge in bond yields, shifting focus from economic resilience to higher Fed fund rate projections. In emerging markets, a decline occurred in September, driven by poor performance in China's equity market, where policy uncertainty and ailing property sectors contributed to a significant discount compared to global developed markets.
Market Summary | August 2023
In August, the Australian equity market underperformed global markets, while the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained steady interest rates. Global equities faced challenges due to rising bond yields, and US earnings declined. In emerging markets, China's policy stimulus disappointed, and other economies struggled amid global trade uncertainties and weak economic data.
Market Summary | July 2023
The Australian equity market slightly underperformed global equities once again, rising 2.9 per cent in the month, taking the year to date gain to 7.5 per cent.
Market Summary | June 2023
Global equity markets experienced a mixed performance in June, with Australian equities rising only 1.8 per cent, lagging behind the global rally of 6.1 per cent.
Market Summary | May 2023
The MSCI World ex-Australia index declined by 0.9 per cent in May, cutting the year to date return to 8.8 per cent. A decline in the AUD meant the global market index in AUD terms rose 1.2 per cent. However, there was interesting divergence within the broader market indices.
Market Summary | April 2023
The volatility that had characterised the last few months in equity and bond markets subsided in April, underpinning a slight bid tone to most assets. A combination of declining inflation, expectations of a peak in central bank hawkishness and better than expected earnings results helped push equity markets higher despite lingering risks of recession.