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Global equity markets rose in March to seal a strong first quarter for the year. While markets were roiled by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the early part of March, the key theme during the quarter was one of peak inflation, a potential peak in Fed funds and, perhaps most importantly, the combination of weaker (but not recessionary) growth data and lower bond yields.

The first quarter of 2023 continued on the previous quarter’s momentum as markets climbed to start the year. Early in the quarter, the market gained confidence in central banks executing on a soft-landing scenario however this sentiment deteriorated as a series of hotter-than-expected inflation prints and systematic issues in the banking sector hit the headlines. International equities generated strong returns for the quarter outperforming Australian equities. Currency markets remained volatile as the US dollar appreciated approximately 1.5% against the AUD.

Global equity markets gave up ground in February as bond yields rose and markets reassessed the outlook for the Fed funds rate in light of strong payrolls and higher than expected inflation data. Australian Equities also fell as a strong start to the year lost steam.

Diversification is a key investment principle used to manage some investment risk within a portfolio. It is often described as “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”.

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Global equity markets gave up ground in December as the two-month rally in bond yields reversed course following a relatively hawkish December FOMC meeting and a surprise change to Japanese monetary policy. The sell-off in the month was not enough to offset what was a very strong December quarter performance from global equities, built on the belief that inflation had peaked and that the end of the monetary policy tightening cycle was in sight.

The fourth quarter of 2022 brought some much-needed relief for investors as markets climbed after a challenging previous three quarters. We saw a strong rebound from October, with markets rallying as much as 10% to late November, before retreating throughout December. Australian equities generated strong returns for the quarter outperforming international equities. Currency markets remained volatile as the Australian dollar appreciated around 3% against the USD.

Associate Director, Investment Research & Solutions, Ryan Synnot reviews the Arrow Diversified Real 5.5 Portfolio performance and changes in 2022.

Associate Director, Investment Research & Solutions, Ryan Synnot reviews the Arrow Diversified Real 4.5 Portfolio performance and changes in 2022.

Associate Director, Investment Research & Solutions, Ryan Synnot reviews the Arrow Global Active Portfolio performance and changes in 2022.

Associate Director, Investment Research & Solutions, Ryan Synnot reviews the Arrow Socially Responsible Portfolio performance and changes in 2022.

Global equity markets continued their ascent, rising 6.8 per cent in USD terms in November, following the 7.2 per cent jump in October. Despite another round of rate hikes by the US Fed (75 basis points to 4 per cent), the Bank of England (75 basis points to 3 per cent) and several other central banks in response to high inflation, markets instead focussed on the prospect of a de-escalation in the magnitude and pace of central bank policy tightening. While the Fed had been hinting at a possible “step down” in the pace of tightening given the cumulative moves to date and the lagged impact on the economy, better than expected US inflation data for October was the catalyst for a 5.5 per cent lift in the S&P500 on November 10.

The sell-down in equities began in August and continued into September. Global equity markets sold off sharply in September as bond yields ratcheted higher and the global growth outlook deteriorated. A surge in real yields was the main culprit, undermining all asset valuations.

The third quarter was very much a tale of two halves for investment markets. We saw a strong rebound in July from June’s lows, with markets rallying as much as 10% to late August, before erasing almost all the gains in the remainder of the quarter. Australian equities were marginally positive during the quarter, whilst international equities were marginally positive in AUD, however posted significant declines in local currency terms.

We're pleased to share that Peter Leggett has been named as one of the Barron's top 100 Financial Advisers for 2022. Barron’s is a 101-year-old American magazine for investors. The ranking is both a guide to consumers looking for an adviser and a scorecard that advisers can use to measure themselves against one another. Congratulations to Peter

After a significant rally from mid-June to mid-August, global equity markets lost ground over the second half of August as real bond yields moved higher and markets increased their bets that central banks were likely to maintain restrictive policy settings for longer than earlier thought.

Global equity markets rebounded in July as markets lowered their expectations for rate hikes and bond yields rallied. In a sense, poor economic news was good news for equities. With the aggressive Fed policy tightening raising the risk of recession and signs of an easing in commodity prices and supply chain issues, markets cut their expectations of “peak” Fed funds from around 3.5 percent to 3.25% while 10-year treasury yields rallied from just under 3 percent to 2.67 per cent.